Last week there was a story that was repeated in the press across the world concerning a new Nature Conservancy-funded study that showed that there would be an increase in carbon emissions if land was converted from forests or other natural ecosystems to biofuel crops. This work will be published in Science, and it sent another trickle of doubt through the minds of those promoting the biofuels industry, and more ammunition for those who have been naysayers the whole time. The annual study deals with energy efficiency in ethanol production, a myopic view that ignores the overall bioeconomy concept.
This becomes more important daily as I speak with various stakeholders, whether it is those developing biobased products, new biotechnology traits, or renewable energy. There seems to be very little common understanding of the overall vision of creating a variety of products for food and many other uses, using solar energy and plants. My guess is that the lack of a comprehensive sellable vision is an offshoot of the ongoing disconnects between the various stakeholders (commodity groups, ethanol producers, new tech folks). As many of you have read before, this is not a new topic for me to write about, but I am going to hammer through it again.
The discussion and arguments that appear in the New York Times are similar to arguments about mainframe computers 20+ years ago. In those days it could have been scientifically proven that the early computers were not efficient, lacked basic infrastructure, and were cost prohibitive. These arguments seem a bit silly today in the days of nanotech and ipods. Similarly it is not worth arguing too much about the current infancy stage of the biofuels industry when in two decades the efficiencies and systems will have improved so dramatically that today's arguments will seem very irrelevant.
In direct response to the New York Times story (and others this week based on the newly published papers on biofuels sustainability) it is difficult to argue with scientific measurements and peer review when they are discussing the first generation technologies, with little relevance of the overall shift towards renewables and greentech that is making all industry more energy efficient, improving water use, and reducing the amount of energy used in manufacturing. In Europe and the U.S. the cleantech industry received over $5 billion in venture capital in 2007 alone. This will lead to innovations that none of us can predict for a cleaner, greener environment.
The take home lesson for biofuels is that we are going to have major shifts in input technology (less petroleum used in production); increased crop yields (more material per acre); major increases in fuel efficiency and new transport technology; and finally massively improved conversion technologies taking plant material and making useful products (such as biofuels).
This does not mean that potential negatives should not be brought up. As in any industry, opportunists/takers may try to exploit vulnerable labor and unprotected natural resources. This is happening in many established industries already. The push for sustainability is and should be a key driver in the myriad of new technologies. However, the concept of harnessing solar energy in plants and using the plants as green factories for producing many useful products including biofuels is fundamentally sound and can be done in a way that provides food, feed, fiber and products to the world.
This is part of an overall cultural shift toward rural entrepreneurialism that values solar energy and local land, very unlike concepts such as cutting down Brazilian rainforests to produce biodiesel. The current system is built heavily around a few commodity crops, relatively inefficient processes, and products that may not be the best for us (think high fructose corn syrup). The future includes a more careful examination of the thousands of potential crops and increased economic benefit of concepts such as eco-tourism and environmental services. Whether it is for nutraceuticals, new green chemistries, or for hiking, the rainforest's value will exceed that of a provider of land for "cheap feedstocks" while continuing its existence as part of a sustainable system.
Pete Nelson is a principal in BioDimensions, a consultancy dedicated to helping companies producing plant-based products prosper. He can be reached by email at pnelson@biobased.org.